← SGCCC Distorted Reflections season Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at SGCCC Distorted Reflections season Store Championship
decks
3
(17.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-7-2
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1292
· median 1263
· range 1181–1433
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1181
Q3 1317
1433
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
| Water Genbu | 11.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.7% | -6.1 |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Water Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
